FINANCIAL SERIOUSNESS AND SINCERITY OF THE MAN (9 MIN.)

FINANCIAL SERIOUSNESS AND SINCERITY OF THE MAN (9 MIN.)

By

Juan B. Lorenzo Membiela (c)

After the «historical» European Summit ended on 29 June, the German newspaper "Die Welt" published on its front page: "Europe arrives for our money". It is a terse summary of a reality that is not entirely correct. It is true that Germany is compromised by what was agreed at the Summit even her German Federation of savings, but not yet.

German Parliament, then to the Summit, agreed by two-thirds accessions to the Fiscal Pact and the European Fund for stability and sustainability (improperly called bailout Fund). From July 1, 2012 is replaced by the European stability mechanism (MEDE), known by the acronym English ESM (European Stability Mechanism).

It is a temporary relief for countries in crisis, since then it is hoped that the risk premium will not rise to such high dimensions. Extreme premium that is due to the inadequacy of structural measures stimulating competitiveness. I.e., that the risk premium indicates the need for further reforms.

However, the Chairman of Germany, Mr. Joachim Gauck, not sign these laws passed by the German Parliament until the German Federal Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) to decide on the appeals lodged by the regional leaders even of the same political party that Chancellor Merkel, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Deserves attention this circumstance because the German tribunal's jurisprudence is not prone to transfers of sovereignty to Brussels. Some adverse judgments contributed to the holding of regional or national plebiscites and commit the viability of the European stability and sustainability fund, at least temporarily.

The MEDE can be injected directly into the banks of the countries which so request an immediate liquidity to avoid insolvency. Its funds are guaranteed by all States members of the EU and have a capacity of 440 billion loan €.

The lender is rated by Moody's as "Aaa" by Fitch Ratings and "AAA" by Standard & Poor's as "AA +".

The struggle of Chancellor Merkel, in defense of strict policies of austerity against Spain, Italy and France has noticiado in excess. That these nations blocked any other option that wasn't an endorsement for the euro and the so-called «policies of growth».

I don't think that win or lose in this lance has relevance. Yes there was and there is distrust of the adoption and operation of structural measures "in depth" in the affected countries. And a price that will be added to the types that shall be imposed on the loan that you grant the MEDE. Measures stimulating for competitiveness extensible to a greater or lesser extent throughout the European Union. Spain and Italy are not the only problem but cement the problem.

The prevailing mistrust - cause of the high risk premium - is that will motivate that along with banking and tax measures be accompanied different ones that streamlined the State of welfare, labour, public relations and private, and in general, a transfer of sovereignty in favour of the European Commission which will be more sparing in the maintenance and Latin cutting subsidies.

The Greek example, not long ago, evidence of how after winning an election parties Europhiles, radically changed program avoiding any compromised structural decision. Intra-Community insincerity has unpleasant consequences especially for countries whose liquidity will be committed even to pay for essential services.

No doubt the European control over the money that is paid will be scrupulous (Gertrud r. Traud, 2012). Well is not an investigation into the causes of this situation. But one of them, is certainly an institutional wear that began decades ago and that has stunning to who for its mission should have acted with forecasting and prevention. Without a doubt what is and what ought to be a managerial position in the Administration has been forgotten in its very essence, that is, without more, a public and institutional Sector for a good general and common.

This fact confirms called «determinism institutional» 2011 (Inglehart), by which a society institutions integrate culture formed in that society. I.e. worn institutions encourage worn societies, as integrity institutions encourage societies intact.

Financial inconsistencies flagged mistrust that prevent the crisis leave. Questionable is not so restrictive measures but positive, creative. For example, the design of efficient processes in industry or services to increase productivity, flexible management looking for greater commitment to the operator, freedom of trade to tackle the crisis with autonomy without being bound by regulations which hinder competitiveness, the creation of international networks that facilitate the installation of factories or companies outside of the European Union, the empowerment of the electronic market, limited deregulation to the free market ultimately.

These are times of epic not opportunists. It is time for the poetic deception that says ailing truth. The political demagoguery nothing solved already. The designed stagings have been left without applause by an empty Auditorium.

The deconstruction of what Europe has meant as a civilization or image advanced from what should be a modern world is in decline. Neither India, nor China, nor Brazil, nor other powerful and emerging economies have invested in social protection that this old continent has spent. Neither adopts nor programs that encourage initiative and creativity in its citizens.

It is the time in which everything must be streamlined in proportion to the economic viability of each State and insecurities that must be controlled by the knowledge that entails. Modernity has another very different way whose epicenter is not exactly the man but financial. Some say that it is the same, because both the one and the other thrive in chaotic in self-dealing and it is possible that he is right. With humility, let us recognize that the problem is in each of us, not in others.

Come on purpose the words from  William e. Henley:

« […] In the fierce grip of circumstances

I have regretted nor I gave shouts.

Under the blows of the random

My head bleeds, but will not tilt [...] » .

Parallels between the crisis of 1929 and 2007 (9 min.)

Parallels between the crisis of 1929 and 2007 (9 min.)

by

John B Lorenzo d Membiela

PhD from the University of Valencia

"The decline of the West", Spengler explains the cyclical character of civilizations and their destruction as the last phase. This inevitable end generates in the tragedy of circumstances, an unconditional resignation. Resignation, which often served to soportad fatalities. Today also to uncertain of day to day and afraid to lift the gaze to scrutinize to the more immediate future? Nothing can object to the rulers of today because nothing objected to the rulers of yesterday. Only that the yesterday and today have been blurred tomorrow.

The crisis of 1929 has been studied as a manifestation of a cyclic economy in both the concurrence of similar financial and economic behaviors. Especially the exhaustion of opportunities due to an overexpansion of consumer demand and investment, the so-called localiser (2009: 308 Kindleberguer).

Their effects during subsequent years show us aspects currently contributing but not all. In essence, remain emotions that are unalterable, whatever of the historical moment, because they belong to the nature of the man who has remained unchanged. And to them it must seek to explain behaviors that may appear to be erratic.

The cycle that repeats itself is composed of the liquidity crisis, by extravagant public budgets by decreases in prices that break the monetary system, by a gross investment of close to zero and, finally, by a banking Apocalypse (Rostow, 1971: 84).

Get to know circumstances of 1929 and subsequent years can help us avoid falling more deeply because knowing how to swim in the "forms" of communication prevents that "funds" is more immerse into the abyss. The emotional economic has operated in positive and negative. Notable examples:

(a) the fear of investors perceptions or negative news about the financial solvency of a country. It is not its authenticity, only proof of a rumor wrong, futile. Generated panic and anxiety of liquidity which led to the sale of securities and currencies.

This occurred after a statement from Hoover in Des Moines (Iowa, USA) on October 4, 1932, when he mentioned "how close to us had been leaving the pattern gold (...)". This comment sparked a global wave of financial speculation against the dollar.

Another example, the cancellation of deposits in New York in 1929 by foreign investors, banks and corporate America foreign without any reason. It generated losses to individual investors. These, in turn, to compensate their losses, made their mortgages, resulting in the majority of cases, mass evictions.

The housing prices quickly fell along with raw materials and automobiles. In August 1929 contracted sales of vehicles, from 440,000 to 319.000 in October; to 169.500 in November and December 92.500 (Butler, 1969).

(b) recovery of confidence. Britain regained the confidence of international markets in the pound in January 1932.

The British Government announced that the Bank of England would meet the payments of credits in the summer of 1931 without affecting their stock of gold. Also reported the advance and voluntary payment of the income tax in January when it should be in March (see the study of Einzing, p., "The Comedy of the Pound", 1933, p. 56).

The purpose to be achieved was to stabilize the pound to the gold value but also restore to London as a global financial centre (Einzing, 1935), which today, in the 21st century aims to the detriment of Germany.

Financial subtlety not married the abrupt reality of facts. And this it can be concluded that the financial market is sensitive to the suspicion, without more. Marketing on financial corrections "policies" made by leaders have been able to provide a picture of economic strength that the dessert has yielded positive results, at least in the short term. We live in lies, in the virtual, but in the end and after even dying.

Claim attention to unnoticed fact, that it has not deserved any comment. An organic law of budgetary stability for all administrations was published in 2001. This rule allowed the autonomous communities to take the necessary measures to achieve the zero deficit with an increase in public revenue policy, either through reduction of costs, and without that can resort to a higher debt as a way of financing production.

The purpose of it was truncated in 2006 to amend substantially the 2001 Act and participate all of a new regulatory framework which invited walk in any way in full bubble that enriched via tax administrations.

Today the architecture of the time invites reflection on the decadence embodied by Gongora in their "solitudes". Relentless suffocation of an economy whose internal structure is misunderstood. Denaturation of the human context. The ethics of diffuse towards an evocative narcissism of the bucolic lived traffic. From national to the Empire and the Empire to the village as a catalyst for the vileness of men and the decline of abandonment and loneliness. His verses are:

Those little trees

Cease to be towers today (...)

The stars night lights

They were of their battlements (...).

They lie now, and its bare stones

They dress pious Ivy:

That havoc and ruins

Know the time making green praise (...).

Economics Perspectives and emotion of the markets (9 min.)

Economics Perspectives and emotion of the markets (9 min.)

Juan B. Lorenzo Membiela

Doctor por la Universidad de Valencia (Spain-EU))

The Agency 'Standard & Poors' maintains the rating of Spain at 'BBB +', by the firm commitment of the country with economic and fiscal adjustment. It supposes a recognition to the containment of the deficit measures agreed in the first 7 months of Government.

Persists, however, the negative Outlook so called 'underlying risks'. Either unemployment, whose rate set in the active population (EPA) survey, July 2012 stands it at 24,63% (INE, 2012). Good for the expected contraction of the gross domestic product (GDP) by the increase in VAT in September. Well, by the fluctuations of the interest of the money, something that is unpredictable. Well, finally, by the fall of the collection in the autonomous communities affecting their sustainability.

The situation is not easy, not unapproachable.

The Government expected a contraction in GDP of 0.5% in 2013 and a growth in GDP of 1.2 per cent in 2014. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) ratifies the increase of GDP in 2014, but adjusting it (Spiegel, 8/2012). This is important because it is the beginning of an economic recovery.

However, the budget deficit Spanish and payment of bonds shall be until 2014 385,000 MLL. € (The Economist 8/2012). In the current year, 2012, Spain is paying the amount of 158,000 mll. loans received €.

These are data that should be communicated so that citizenship can verify compliance and find a justification, at least, to much sacrifice. There is selling management and is not. The image of desolation that communicate «silence» only belongs to the indolent, that is not the case, in view of the changes made in the first 7 months of government mandate.

Forget things as obvious as "emotion" of the markets. How does not prevent speculation financial and lack of trust in Spain, if it doesn't know the timely fulfillment of payment of sovereign debt, bonds, letters, or obligations of the Treasury, the payment of pensions and allowances, among others? The important thing is the payment but even more the effects that that payment results in economic circumstances adverse to the country that has been paid.

Certainty is not transmitted and studies on the crisis of 1929 reflect clearly, the basics that is to transmit solvency and "appearance of solvency" to avoid financial panics.

For the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and his advisor stationed in Spain, Mr. Daniel James, in an interview conducted in 27 July 2012 and published in the Digital newsletter of the IMF, defends trimming the fiscal deficit, the VAT increase, the labor reform and the sanitation of banking as a strategy to boost business productivity.

Declares the Economist of the IMF: "since the beginning of the crisis the temporary employment has declined a third but the standing only 6%.» "To remedy this situation committed to give confidence in procurement companies even if that means that some people work differently, more flexible conditions or earn less".

In the light of these statements, the IMF supports Spain. Amendments to policy on employment, for example, although they not deployed its effectiveness of immediate mode yes do so in the medium term, because of the regulatory flexibility. It is an achievement of all forms, today reached agreements business to accommodating working conditions to the contingencies of the production. This prevents the destruction of more jobs.

Financial pressures on Spain are explained by the IMF as a result of a faulty construction of the euro area and not properly the economic characteristics of Spain.

But you have to be aware of the euro crisis is immersed in another crisis of greater draught at the global level. But without the depth from which we suffer.

A global recession has been found. This phenomenon is verified by the report of the IMF published in July 16, 2012, entitled 'Perspective of the world economy' that modifies the issued in April 2012. Confirms a cooling of the global economic recovery that is produced in the period April-July 2012.

Does a drama request the rescue to the MEDE (mechanism European stability) - IMF - Central Bank if we note the uncertainty that surrounds us makes time and the consequences of a 'default' of the State which we would drag to the edge of the third world economy with its consequences.

The existence of a systemic crisis and an imperative need to change the mode, and how far have been doing things. But that a new man "renovatio" never arises by a willingness to free but required by the circumstances. As Schopenhauer wrote in his work "The world as will and representation": no progress can be expected for humanity, where the same evils are reborn without ceasing.

Paralelismos entre las crisis de 1929 y 2007 ( 9 min.)

Paralelismos entre las crisis de 1929 y 2007 ( 9 min.)

por

Juan B Lorenzo d Membiela

Doctor por la Universidad de Valencia

En “La decadencia de Occidente” , Spengler explica el carácter cíclico de las civilizaciones  y su destrucción  como fase última. Este inevitable final genera, en la tragedia de las circunstancias, una resignación incondicional. Resignación  que a muchos sirvió para soportad fatalidades.  ¿ Hoy también ante lo incierto del día a dia y con  miedo a alzar la mirada para escudriñar hasta el fututo más inmediato? Nada puede objetarse a los gobernantes de  hoy porque nada se objetó a los gobernantes de  ayer. Solamente que  el ayer y el hoy  han difuminado el mañana.

La crisis de 1929 ha sido estudiada como manifestación de una  economía cíclica  en tanto la concurrencia de comportamientos financieros y económicos  muy parecidos . Especialmente el agotamiento de las oportunidades de inversión  debido a  una sobreexpansión de la demanda consumista y la inversión  , el llamado overshooting (Kindleberguer,2009:308).

Sus efectos durante los  años sucesivos nos muestran  aspectos que concurren en la actualidad aunque no todos. En lo esencial, subsisten emociones que son  permanentes, sea cual sea el momento histórico, porque pertenecen a la naturaleza del hombre  que se mantiene inalterable. Y  a ellas debe acudirse para explicar comportamientos que  pueden parecer erráticos.

El ciclo que se repite está compuesto  por la crisis de liquidez, por presupuestos públicos extravagantes, por  disminuciones de precios que quiebran  el sistema monetario , por una inversión  bruta cercana a  cero y, finalmente, por una apocalipsis bancaria (Rostow, 1971:84).

 Conocer circunstancias de 1929 y años subsiguientes   pueden ayudarnos  a evitar caer más profundamente porque saber nadar en las “formas”  de la comunicación impide  que los  “fondos” se sumerjan  más en el abismo. Lo emotivo  económico ha operado  en sentido positivo y negativo. Destacable como ejemplos:

a)El miedo de los inversores  a percepciones o noticias  negativas sobre  la solvencia económica de un país . No se trata de su  autenticidad, tan sólo la  constancia de un rumor equívoco , fútil. Se generó pánico y ansiedad de liquidez que motivó  la venta  de  valores y  divisas.

Ello ocurrió tras unas declaraciones  de Hoover en  Des Moines (Iowa, EEUU) en  4 de octubre   de  1932 , cuando mencionó  “lo cerca  que EEUU había estado de abandonar el patrón oro (…) “. Este comentario desató una oleada  mundial de especulación financiera en contra del dólar.

Otro ejemplo, la cancelación de depósitos  en Nueva York en 1929 por inversores extranjeros,  bancos y corporaciones  estadounidenses foráneos  sin motivo alguno. Ello  generó  perdidas a inversores particulares. Éstos, a su vez,  para  resarcir sus perjuicios, realizaron sus hipotecas, provocando , en la mayoría de los casos,  desahucios masivos .

El precio de la vivienda cayó rápidamente  junto  a materias primas y automóviles . En agosto de 1929 se contrajo la venta de vehículos, de 440.000 a 319.000 en octubre; a 169.500 en noviembre  y  a 92.500 en diciembre( Butler,1969).

b)Recuperación de la confianza. Gran Bretaña recuperó la confianza de los mercados internacionales  en la libra  en enero de 1932.

El gobierno británico   anunció  que el Banco de Inglaterra  cumpliría los pagos de los créditos en el  verano de 1931 sin mermar su stock de oro. También informó   el pago adelantado  y voluntario del impuesto de la renta en enero cuando debía hacerse en marzo (véase  el estudio de Einzing, P., “The Comedy of the Pound” ,1933, p. 56).

La finalidad perseguida fue  estabilizar la libra al valor oro pero también restablecer  a Londres como centro financiero mundial (Einzing, 1935), cosa que hoy, en el siglo XXI, se pretende en detrimento de Alemania .

La sutilidad financiera no casa con la realidad abrupta de unos hechos. Y de ello cabe deducir  que el mercado financiero es sensible a la simple sospecha, sin más. Las “políticas” de marketing sobre los  ajustes financieros  hechas por  dirigentes han podido  ofrecer una imagen de solidez económica  que a la postre ha dado resultados positivos, al menos en el corto plazo. Es vivir en la mentira, en lo virtual,  pero al fin y al cabo vivir aunque sea muriendo.

Reclamo la atención sobre un hecho desapercibido, que no ha merecido comentario alguno. En 2001 se publicó una  ley orgánica  de estabilidad presupuestaria para todas las administraciones . Esta norma permitía a las comunidades autónomas adoptar las medidas necesarias para alcanzar el déficit cero , sea con una política de incremento de los ingresos públicos, sea  a través de  reducción de los gastos, y sin que pueda recurrirse a una mayor emisión de deuda pública como forma de financiación.

El propósito de la misma se vio truncado en 2006 al modificarse de forma sustancial la ley de 2001 y participar todos de un nuevo marco normativo que invitaba a caminar de cualquier modo  en plena burbuja inmobiliaria que enriquecía a las administraciones vía impuestos.

Hoy  la arquitectura del  tiempo  invita  a reflexionar sobre la decadencia plasmada por Góngora en sus “ Soledades “.  Asfixias  implacables  de una economía   cuya estructura interna es incomprendida. Desnaturalización del contexto humano. Transito de la ética de lo difuso hacia un narcisismo evocador de lo bucólico vivido. De lo nacional al imperio y del imperio a la aldea como catalizador de la ruindad de los hombres y la decadencia del abandono y la soledad . Son sus versos:

Aquellas que los árboles apenas

Dejan de ser torres hoy(...)

Las estrellas nocturnas luminarias

Eran de sus almenas(...).

Yacen ahora, y sus desnudas piedras

Visten piadosas yedras:

Que a ruinas y a estragos

Sabe el tiempo hacer verdes halagos(...).

Previsión en la crisis ( 7 min.) (algo más que esperar acontecimientos)

Previsión  en la crisis ( 7 min.)

(algo más que esperar acontecimientos)

Juan B. Lorenzo de Membiela

El desempleo no afecta sólo a la persona sino al medio en el que se desenvuelve. Giddens, sobre los estudios realizados por Jahoda constata el debilitamiento de las comunidades y de los vínculos sociales: Los desempleados participaban menos en asuntos ciudadanos, se relacionan menos y visitan menos la biblioteca de su ciudad… (Jahoda, 1982).

 Estos hechos, referenciales,  son   indicativos de las  consecuencias para el hombre en su dimensión vital  y política. Se auto-excluye  de cualquier protagonismo ciudadano.  Se aliena de su ámbito público que por Derecho natural le corresponde  y,  del  privado o familiar, que por afecto le pertenece. 

Para Jouvenel, el centro de la vida política es  la familia.

Tras ser erosionada  por el postmodernismo, creando el llamado « hombre masa », persona sin  vinculaciones  espirituales  y solo públicas, hundido en el  hedonismo excluyente   de la autocomplacencia. Pero esto pasó. Sólo la familia ha servido y sirve  para afrontar desafíos inasumibles para el desempleado y  también para un Estado que soporta hipotecas previas y futuras.

Bajo el conflicto o la crisis  concurre la llamada  « resiliencia», concepto etológico aplicado a los procesos sociales  y que es definida como un proceso dinámico que tiene como  resultado la adaptación positiva en contextos de gran adversidad (Luthar, Cicchetti y Becker, 2000).

Desarrollar estrategias conductuales para promover « resiliencia » debe convertirse  en objetivo de una política sanitaria previsora ante el fenómeno del desempleo, y más cuando es sistémico.

También  implementarlo en programas de educación a todos los niveles  para completar la formación ante un futuro en donde los caminos se desvanecen.

Previsión no sólo   prevención.

El desempleo, con ser grave, no justifica un sometimiento  a las exigencias de un neocapitalismo  alienante. Litim, de la Universidad de Paris,  enumera las consecuencias de una exigencia de eficiencia y productividad extrema: cánceres profesionales, somatizaciones reactivas a un medio hostil  y suicidios.

En Francia fue llamativo los  numerosos  siniestros  autolíticos   en la empresa « France Télécom» . Durante los años 2008 a 2009 la cifra alcanzó los 35, algo insólito. Hechos que siguieron durante 2010 y 2011.

 La fiscalía  de Paris abrió una investigación por acoso moral en abril de 2012. La Inspección de trabajo  francesa  analizó en su informe casos de suicidio, pero también de intentos de suicidio y de depresión que consideró causados por la política de personal del antiguo monopolio estatal francés. Presión excesiva, exacerbación de la productividad sin objetivos definidos, miedos impuestos e inducidos, incertidumbre, zozobra.

Todo ello fue originado  por la necesidad de reestructurar la plantilla. Se habló de despedir a 22.000 empleados. Las estrategias  consistentes en el incremento de trabajo, asumiendo diseños  primitivos de gestión, típicamente asiáticos, son de difícil implantación a quienes han asumido  principios laborales  por una evolución en la forma de dispensar el trabajo.

Sin una estrategia gestora del cambio, adecuada, y el uso  de severas  medidas de gerencia el derrumbe psicológico es una opción probable.

Las políticas de recursos humanos han supuesto  un rotundo fracaso.  Muy pocos responsables  son sensibles a esta situación, o porque no saben o porque no pueden ,  indicio de la crisis del humanismo.

Se echa en falta una  planificación que  palie efectos adversos  « de  la crisis » y « en la crisis » . La Responsabilidad Social Empresarial se ha mostrado inoperativa . El componente  ecológico ha desaparecido y la sostenibilidad ya no es referente alguno. Pero el hombre es indisponible.

El Reino Unido adoptó  en 2009 a través de su Ministerio de Sanidad, un plan de choque contra los efectos de la crisis a través de asistencia psicológica y médica para paliar  niveles más bajos de bienestar mental. Las medidas propuestas fueron:

1.  Formación  de terapeutas y enfermeras para crear a finales de 2010 una red de unidades de auxilio psicológico en oficinas de empleos y ambulatorios de médicos de cabecera.

2. Creación de una línea telefónica para atender a quienes se hayan sumido en la depresión debido a problemas económicos.

Hacer las cosas debidas no impide  hacer las cosas  bien. Hacerlas con la integridad de la excelencia  pasa por la obligación de  empatizar con todo el elemento humano y prestar ayuda al más necesitado.

Hablo desde la honestidad para quienes sinceramente se hallen en encrucijadas decisivas.